Democrats Are Favored to Win Back the House, But Can They Avoid Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?

Democrats are favored by various polls to win back the House of Representatives at the November 2026 midterm election. Election polls such as the Emerson College Polling Center give generic Democrats a double digit advantage. Like all elections however, they must take precautions to prevent the snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory.

One example is the race for the 12th congressional district in New Jersey to replace the retiring congresswoman Bonnie Watson-Coleman. While Democrats are not in danger of losing the seat, given its overwhelming Democratic makeup, the Democratic nominee will most certainly be portrayed as a radical extremist by the Republican Party. Adam Hamawy, who won the Democratic primary, will face Republican Gregg Mele who is running in his 7th race.

In 1995, Hamawy testified on behalf of Omar Abdel-Rahman. Rahman was ultimately convicted on terrorism and seditious conspiracy charges. While his Democratic opponents stayed away from the issue during the primary, the Democratic Mayor of Plainfield Adrian Mapp said during an interview: "you can't describe Adam Hamawy as a progressive — he is what you would call a radical extremist."

Democrats believe they have a chance to take back the US Senate if they could defeat Maine Senator Susan Collins. The Democratic candidate Graham Platner had dropped out of the race due to allegations. While the new Democratic nominee Troy Jackson is currently leading in the polls, Collins has an advantage in fundraising.

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) have had impressive victories but their propensity to tear down party leaders may bring problems. Darializa Avila Chevalier, who beat the incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the primary, is running to represent the 13th congressional district of NYC. Through her social media she has described former president Barack Obama as "evil". While she has apologized for her remarks, it could raise issues for other Democratic candidates going forward.

Many DSA candidates have an affinity to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. His difficulty in appealing to older Black voters in the south during the 2016 Democratic primary season played a role in his inability to win the presidential nomination. DSA has done well, but they remain a microcosm of the larger Democratic Party. The victories in New York may not be a model for the rest of the nation. In the south, older Black voters are the most loyal but tend to be more moderate.

Nonetheless, the idea and utility of socialism has been around for a long time. Eugene Debs ran as a socialist for president from prison and received almost one million votes. Public opinion surveys have consistently found that while many Americans view the label 'socialism' negatively, individual policies often associated with democratic socialism — such as Social Security, Medicare, higher minimum wages, and infrastructure spending — frequently receive majority support.

“Democrats are favored to win in November but through their own stumbling and infighting it may not be as easy as they thought.”

Tony Aguilar

When it comes to money, Republicans have an advantage. The GOP and their various super PACs have $843 million compared to Democratic coffers of $243 million. The Republican National Committee has $128 million compared to the Democratic National Committee which is presently in the red. Where Democratic candidates do have the advantage is at the local level. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has raised over $80 million for his campaign.

Democrats are favored to win in November but through their own stumbling and infighting it may not be as easy as they thought.