Can Reza Pahlavi Unite Iran?

Introduction

In recent years, debates over Iran's political future have increasingly focused on Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah, who has re-emerged as a prominent and controversial personality. Whether he could serve as an organizing principle for a broader political "grand bargain", uniting opposition forces and enabling a transition of power, remains an open question.

The name Pahlavi, derived from Pahlav (the Parthians, ancient Iranian people), was adopted in 1925 to emphasize continuity with pre-Islamic Persian civilization and national unity (Parsa, 2025).

Today, Reza Pahlavi is seen not only as a political opposition figure but also as a broader symbol of national identity and a potential actor in shaping Iran's future.

This article examines his potential to gain support given his historical legacy, the likelihood of backing from Gulf States, and an overview of his main supporters and detractors.

Can Pahlavi Unite the Opposition?

Pahlavi's efforts to convene diverse groups, notably the July 2025 Convention of National Cooperation to Save Iran, suggest his capacity to bridge long-standing divides across Baloch, Bakhtiari, Kurdish, Iranian Christians, Yarsani, and other minority groups present at the Convention (Toumadje & Hooman, 2025).

A 2022 survey conducted by GAMAAN, based on responses from 158,000 respondents inside Iran, found that Pahlavi received the highest level of support - 32.8% - in the event of a regime transition (Lob, 2026).

However, his ability to genuinely consolidate the opposition remains uncertain. Iran's opposition is deeply fragmented among ideological, generational, and ethnic dimensions. Moreover, the legacy of his father's authoritarian rule, particularly the strict political control associated with SAVAK, continues to influence opinions on Pahlavi. He never publicly apologized for repressions (Fernandez, 2026). Pahlavi's 2023 visit to Israel and his stance on its military actions have further polarized public opinion.

Questions also persist regarding his leadership capacity. His limited engagement with domestic actors and perceived distance from internal dynamics contribute to skepticism, particularly among reformists and liberals inside Iran (Lob, 2026).

Support and Opposition Forces

Pahlavi's core supporters include monarchists, segments of the diaspora, secular democrats, defectors from military and security institutions, and nostalgic older generations. Israel also views him positively.

His opponents include supporters of the current Islamic Republic, republicans, leftists, and the hardline exiled dissident groups. His increasingly sharp rhetoric against rivals raises concerns about whether political repression would truly diminish under his leadership. Ethnic minorities, including the Kurds and Azeris, who favor more regional autonomy, and critics of his ties with Israel, are also skeptical.

Criticism is further reinforced by his nearly 50 years of absence from Iran and reliance on Western backing, undermining his legitimacy. The Trump administration is distant from him, despite his attempts to align with Republican discourse, likely avoiding premature support for a controversial figure (Fernandez, 2026).

Support for Pahlavi often appears driven by his role as an alternative to the current Islamic regime, while opposition stems from a broader and more diverse set of concerns.

Gulf States' Interests

The Gulf States are wary of regime change in Iran, partly due to distrust rooted in the legacy of Pahlavi's father, who was often perceived as the "policeman of the region," acting with arrogance toward Arab monarchies. As political history researcher Majid Al-Abbasi notes, "the best option for the Gulf States is compliant Iran without risking the rise of a new hardline president or one whose future political direction is unknown" (Hussain, 2026).

A systemic political shift could trigger chaos in an unstable region, disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and threaten oil-dependent economies. Thus, the Gulf States reinforce a pragmatic, wait-and-see approach. However, recent security incidents involving oil infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have put pressure on revising strict neutrality. There are also fears that the fall of Shia-led Iran could strengthen Sunni Saudi dominance, particularly in Oman, where Ibadi identity adds another layer to the broader Sunni-Shia rivalry (Hussain, 2026).

Conclusion

While Reza Pahlavi is a symbolically powerful figure, his ability to serve as a true unifying figure remains uncertain. He benefits from the visibility and support of certain segments of the diaspora and opposition to the current political system in Iran. Yet, a divided Iranian society, questions of legitimacy, and cautious regional dynamics limit his prospects.

Bibliography

• Fernández, E. (2026). Reza Pahlavi: from exile in Washington to a potential figurehead of the Iranian opposition. Atalayar
• Hussain, A. (2026). Why Some GCC States Fear the Fall of the Iranian Regime. The Medialine
• Lob, E. (2026). The rise of Reza Pahlavi: Iranian opposition leader or opportunist? The Conversation
• Parsa, F. (2025). Iran and the Symbolism of Prince Reza Pahlavi. Real Clear World
• Toumadje, T., Hooman, A. (2025). Iranian Opposition Unites Around Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI)