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America Seeks Regime Change in Iran

Commentary by Tony AguilarFeb 28, 2026
Opening

As Americans woke up this morning, they were greeted with reports about a joint attack on Iran by Israel and the United States. This represents the seventh nation where America has conducted military strikes since 2025. This attack will once again raise the issue of congressional oversight.

The attack occurred despite negotiations led by the nation of Oman that would have ended Iran's nuclear weapons desire. According to Oman's Foreign Minister Basr Albusaidi, both nations had shown "openness to new and creative ideas" which has raised the question why the attack had to happen now.

Analysis

Some have suggested that the negotiation included aspects which would have led to an agreement superior to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by the Obama administration. Perhaps Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that Iran is such an existential threat that it needed to be taken out now.

Others have suggested a wag the dog scenario as the president is still being dogged by the Epstein files. It is interesting to note that in 2011 Donald Trump said the following about President Obama: "The only way Obama figures that he is going to get reelected and as sure as you're sitting there is to start a war with Iran."

It is even plausible that the United States has an interest in Iran's oil reserves which is the world's third largest. What raises the question even more is the statement by President Trump that the United States had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capabilities in 2025. If that is the case why would another attack on Iran be necessary. This was contradicted by the comment Special Envoy Steve Witkoff that "they're probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb making material."

“Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond.”

— President Trump, announcing the attacks

Perhaps the president was thinking about how the people of Hungary rose up in 1956. Unfortunately, that uprising was violently squashed by Russia.

There have been consequences thus far as Iran has retaliated by attacking nations in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Qatar, Doha and Kuwait, thereby potentially turning this into a regional conflict.

Iran — military and geopolitical tension
A joint U.S.–Israel strike on Iran marks America's seventh military operation since 2025

Key Context

Iran's oil reserves are the world's third largest — a factor some analysts cite as an underlying motivation behind the military operation.

Historical Context

Iran has always been a target of America given its status as the largest exporter of terrorism. Tensions with Iran go back decades. While the president recalled the taking of the American embassy in 1979, which gave rise to the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, as the beginning of American/Iranian tension, he neglected to discuss the reason.

Iranians were upset that the Shah of Iran was allowed to go to the United States instead of being returned to stand trial. While Americans in general believe that the beginning of the conflict started in 1979, it actually began decades earlier.

The president neglected to tell the public that the United States and Great Britain backed a coup in 1953 that overthrew the democratically elected prime minister Mohammed Mossadegh.

The coup was instigated to protect oil interests. It is alleged that the operation was led by CIA operative Kermit Roosevelt, grandson of Theodore Roosevelt.

America's Regime Change Record

7th

Nation where America has conducted military strikes since 2025.

Regional Retaliations

  • Saudi Arabia
  • Dubai
  • Qatar
  • Doha
  • Kuwait

Nonetheless, present day Iran is a murderous regime, and its demise will be welcomed by the overwhelming majority of the population. This is a regime who recently killed more than 30,000 protesters.

As this is a regime change military operation, there is no doubt America is a vastly superior country when it comes to its offensive and defensive capabilities. Nonetheless, America's record when it comes to regime change is not a good one.

The Houthi Precedent

Even with the Houthis, American capabilities came up short. Despite expenditures of over one billion dollars, America has failed to stop attacks on ships using the Red Sea. Now as a result of today's attacks, shipping has stopped altogether.

There will be consequences of this attack ranging from increased gas prices to a fall of the government that potentially leads to chaos. There are many, including the gulf states, who would welcome a change of government in Iran. If past is prologue however, America's involvement will not lead to a good future for the people of Iran.

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